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Corona Virus - COVID 19


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My wife said what really gave hope to her in this crisis:

She was walking through the village for bandaging a patient when there was a knock on a window. She stood still and an old lady aged 93 asked if she could help in the crisis. My wife knew that she was a nurse in war time and politly said she will remember her if the need would arise. Not really planing to place a person of this age into risk.

The lady said: Girl (!!!) not what you think. I learned to sew surgical masks at the bad times. I have no quick fingers any more, but I could sew 10 a day with the right material and I know that my neighbours (all above 80) can make them too with my teaching.

The mask she was showing wouln't be taken at modern hospitals, but it looked better than the normal masks people use on streets.

My wife said that this lady was more of a politician than all the politicians who spread panic and claim that other countries are guilty and not their own mistakes.

 

Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country.

 

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Got the delivery of new notebooks, keyboards and touchpads I ordered mid february for work, firefighters and private. All can be easily desinfected.

Also 100kg material for 3D printers at work. Some(= a lot) extra in case we have to make not available (oversea) replacement parts for work, private, firefighters, ...

First thing I printed was a plastic part which fits to the face and belongs to a mask. The air isn't breathed direct against the fabric but redirected , so bigger particles should be on the plastic. 3D file found on internet.

All at work have one now, fabric done by the old ladies.

Next printed ones go to my wife as a doc, firefighters, ...

 

My son said: History teacher said that in time of war and crisis there would be an increase in inventions. He hopes for interstellar spaceships in 20 years.

 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, chattius said:

My son said: History teacher said that in time of war and crisis there would be an increase in inventions. He hopes for interstellar spaceships in 20 years.

FYI: the Earth is technically a space ship.

36 minutes ago, chattius said:

First thing I printed was a plastic part which fits to the face and belongs to a mask. The air isn't breathed direct against the fabric but redirected , so bigger particles should be on the plastic. 3D file found on internet.

All at work have one now, fabric done by the old ladies.

Next printed ones go to my wife as a doc, firefighters, ...

Make sure to train people properly. That's not so easy, according to

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/

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The masks will be worn by people who have to go into contact with people at high risk: old, cancer, ...

And at work when noone can be sure if he is infected or not. Everyone there has its own ventilated room way below ground level. But sometimes it is needed to work physically together. Then masks are worn. It is more to not spread activly than preventing an infection on oneself. The medical keyboards and such are for the room where several people work together and share a computer terminal.

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I honour your ideas but Id say it is a bit optimistic. Maybe even dangerous.

Why? The virus stays alive for 3 days max, people who have contact with others can wear your mask, good idea so far. But you will need an FFP3 class mask to filter cov19 out of the air. And this type is sold out across the planet. Also, if an infected person coughs, a large load of virus particles floats through the air and lands somewhere sooner or later. On your cloths for example. Remember that cov19 survives up to 3 days without a host. Now what? Well, you need disposable gloves and a disposable full body FFP3 suit as well. Otherwise, remember that it is also a smear-infection, the poor person could infect itself by touching the own face, mouth, nose and so on. Not speaking of family members, colleagues, friends...

What you deliver, imho, is something that promises savety, but it is not save. In the worst case it could lead to some light-headed behavior. Untrained, forgive my words, teams from the local volunteer Red Cross unit are not able to deal with such a situation, due to the lack of qualification. They could become superspreaders.

The industry will need just a few more days until war production starts. They will deliver what is needed, including an extensive how-to. I assume their way is better.

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59 minutes ago, chattius said:

The masks will be worn by people who have to go into contact with people at high risk: old, cancer, ...

And at work when noone can be sure if he is infected or not. Everyone there has its own ventilated room way below ground level. But sometimes it is needed to work physically together. Then masks are worn. It is more to not spread activly than preventing an infection on oneself. The medical keyboards and such are for the room where several people work together and share a computer terminal.

Brave effort!! 3 of my family is in essential services nursing... and I’m terrified for every day they have to work out in public .. double shifts galore and vacation days taken away in this pandemic... thank you for being out there for us

❤️🙌❤️

gogo

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@Dax: Here it is again:

Don't ask if it helps you, ask if it helps others.

Warning down in the article are my own mathematics teached to my kids as school replacement:  4096 deaths if all wear masks vs 15625 if nobody wears one

The masks lower the risk that the wearer infects others, only 20% of the risk than without (if the wearer knows how to use it). It isn't made to fully protect the wearer, here it has only a small effect.

Of cause the mask wearer has to remove, clean or destroy the mask in a save way.

So if you infect 5 people without a mask and just 1 with one... There are just not enough tests available to test everyone. So whenever visiting a supermarket, bank, fuel station I would consider me as possible infected and wear a mask if in contact with others.

People at my work are handling explosives, dangerous metals and chemicals on a daily routine. Protecting gear is quite normal but wasn't available. My wife worked for a while in a bio hazard environment and really knows what she does. Our second had an accident and dead tissue at a leg. Hide transplantations, lowered immune system in that time, she learned with 12 how to handle that. She is now 1st semester medicine and helping my wife. At firefighters it is mainly for the paramedics.  We can only hope that injured people at an accident are not infected. But one thing I know is: I surely don't want to spread the disease. And here a mask helps.

I am not visiting a fuel station ( 2 tanks each 500 litres diesel at home, normally in case the Unimog has to play a snow plow for the village roads, but all our cars are diesel) or bank at the moment. I phone supermarket two weeks in advance to get all the stuff for 140 people for 2 weeks on some palettes wrapped in plastic foil. I will drive there 6pm when first delivery trucks arrive to avoid people. Half of the people in village are above 65.

Even if untrained mask wearers would only prevent 20% of the infections, do some maths and take a factor 5 (4 if all have masks) in number of infections increased per week:

5, 25, 125, 625, 3125, 15 625

4,16, 64, 256, 1024, 4096

Calculations done with my old brain, handle with care

Less than a third in infections after 5 weeks, about only a quarter after 6 weeks if everyone would wear a mask in this scenario. That is what expontional spreading is about. Small early effects have a big effect.

That is what flatten the curve is...

If you say 20% of the infections prevented is over optimistic, calculate how 5% would be after 10 weeks. It is a lot.

 

I may not save the world, but I will do anything to flatten the curve in my environment as much as possible.

 

 

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Make a phone list, get a truck, and deliver food, or let it deliver, to all homes of your village on a weekly basis, so that ppl above 65 can stay at home. That is a good plan to avoid spreading.

Giving a mask to an infected person so that he or she does not infect others, or lowers the chance to infect others, just as you mentioned, is a bit crazy. Quarantine, 14 days at home, that is what you get. Taking a saturday afternoon walk in the city including a picnic with a cov19 infection is unjustifiable. Wearing a mask as a precaution as soon as you go to a crowded place, ok. Wear disposable gloves too, wash your hands when you return. Keep your hands out of your face. 

Let me know if people wear your mask.

PS

If you visit the fuel station next time, grab some of the disposable gloves.

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Big day today in QC... ALL none essential servcices closed in the province...  you can really see the impact now on the street... noone outside, just a few stragglers and all stores have taped up squares and arrows on the floor to make sure social distancing is being followed.

:)

 

gogo

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1 hour ago, Dax said:

Make a phone list, get a truck, and deliver food, or let it deliver, to all homes of your village on a weekly basis, so that ppl above 65 can stay at home. That is a good plan to avoid spreading. 

We are exactly doing that allready. We just use my Unimog with a trailer instead a truck to move the preorders to village.

1 hour ago, Dax said:

Giving a mask to an infected person so that he or she does not infect others, or lowers the chance to infect others, just as you mentioned, is a bit crazy. Quarantine, 14 days at home, that is what you get.

I don't want infected people to leave the house because they have masks.

Just imagine you visit the supermarket get infected, have no symptoms for 10 days but still spread the virus already. If you would always have worn a mask meanwhile you would have infected less people. The idea is to have everyone wearing a mask at social contacts because nobody can be sure he isn't a spreader.

1 hour ago, Dax said:

Let me know if people wear your mask.

They do.

1 hour ago, Dax said:

If you visit the fuel station next time, grab some of the disposable gloves.

Seems people steal these gloves from the fuel station like they horde toilet paper. There were none.  And you still have to enter the store to pay, breath the air there, ...

 

Even forcing everyone in a supermarket to wear a shawl would flatten the curve. Most old studies how much a mask lowers the risk to get an infection are for hospital people. They are of no value in a flatten the curve at a pandemic scenario. Sadly most experts from a hospital who talk about masks and FFP3 only learned about them for normal hospital life.

If an infected infects 3 others without masks: 3 to the 15th power after 15 iterations is

14.348.907

2.97 = lowering risks to infect other by 1%

12.340.897

2.7 = lowering risks to infect other by 10%

2.954.312

2.4 = lowering risks to infect other by 20%

504.857

If we would have reached 30% in the first weeks of the outbreak normal life could have been continued because the number of heavy infections could be dealed with by hospitals

 

So if you sneeze say 300 particles into the air and reduce this number to only 297 with a shawl it will be 12 and not 14 millions infected after 15 iterations. A shawl used properly should reduce by around 10%. Good masks by trained people up to 80%, by untrained 20%.

80% is interesting because it means that not everyone who is infected may infect another person, bringing the pandemic to a stop. Probably south corea was used to masks, everyone wearing one, and 0.6 to the 15th powers approaches Zero.

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, chattius said:

...

Thanks for doing the calculations, quite impressive but not very useful, because some variables are missing.

We humans are lazy animals. We like our habits. The mask you 3d print is re-usable and not disposable. In theory you have to disinfect it after each use. Why? Because Corona virus is very persistant. You either have to put it into boiling water for several minutes to crush cov19, or use special disinfectant, which has to be bought or mixed together frequently.

Back to our human behavoir. Do you really believe ppl would disinfect your mask all the time? After each use? The answer is no. Well, maybe for the first week or so, but after that I am not so sure about it anymore. Let us continue the scenario. You carry the unwashed mask home, touch it with your fingers and do what you do usually when at home. I would say, you will spread cov19 everywhere. It gets passed on from your hands to the hands of your women, to the hands of your kids and so on. And backward of course. By touching the doorhandle for example. It is called Ping-Pong infection. Like the game.

As you see it is smarter to use disposable masks, and if it is a scarf or so, then put it into a plastic bag after use and keep it there for a week so that cov19 is not active anymore when you take it out of the bag again.

I would like to hear the opinion of your wife possibly maybe. As a former member of a level 1-4 biolab, as you said, she surely can tell us more about hygienics.

 

 

 

 

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Why so pessimistic. Currently we just print new ones. The fabric is removed from the old ones and destroyed. The plastic parts are put into a desinfection container and could be re-used. We have to desinfect our metals used for medical products anyway.

The calculations are done with anything before the mouth the short while you are in a supermarket or at other contacts. They show that a shawl before the mouth is better than nothing.

 

A person not knowing about its infection is dangerous. Consider him as a biological equivalent to a military multirocket minelayer. A minelayer with 270 mines is less deadly than one with 300.

These 30 mines are what could be easily disarmed with a simple thing like a shawl worn 20 minutes while in a market.

Of cause 270 instead 300 doesn't look like much of a difference.

So lets play Terminator. Humans against transformer robots. Robots test a minelayer with 300 mines, find it successful , the robot animates the next 3 robots to transform into minelayers too, .... each of them teaching 3 others robots, ...

Humans react, they find a computer virus which deactivates 10% of all mines allready in the matrix used to copy new robots.

Then General Dax commander of the united earth forces says: 270 instead 300? Are you insane? I want to win the war quickly. Find a better weapon I won't sign that.

Corporal Chattius commander of the resistance says: Better than nothing, lets do it.

A year later: Who knows...

 

 I know that not all parametres are in the calculations, but it isn't in also that you can teach people to spread as few virus as possible. So if you reach 20% with a shawl, teaching how to breath in public, how to make a useful mask and how to use it, ...

All I want to show is that at expontional spreading small changes in behaviour can have a big effect.

2 hours ago, Dax said:

As you see it is smarter to use disposable masks, and if it is a scarf or so, then put it into a plastic bag after use and keep it there for a week so that cov19 is not active anymore when you take it out of the bag again.

I would like to hear the opinion of your wife possibly maybe. As a former member of a level 1-4 biolab, as you said, she surely can tell us more about hygienics.

Normal washing at 60C is enough to destroy the virus for normal people, be it shawl or clothes you have worn at supermarket visit.

 

All you say is that you can't stop 100% of the infections , I agree. I am talking about stopping as few as 20% and that is reachable. Noone will be 100% save by wearing masks or shawls. But the long time effect is obvious.

Sadly we live in a world where quick money and success is all what counts. State is loosing money, we have to start work again,.. After a week: Why isn't there a cure already...

 

When my grandpa died and I got a piece of old oak forest... my bank specialists for investment said, chop it and sell it, put it in papers. Wood prices are high at the moment.

I said oak trees need hundred of years. I am selling them slowly. Big oak trees for asian temples, for big wine barrels, ...

Was 12 years ago and 25 carefully sold trees brought more money than chopping all 300+ right away.

 

Let's face is. Noone in europe or america was confrontated with a pandemic like this before. The only continent which was has people who wear masks and reducing numbers of infections.

 

 

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3 hours ago, chattius said:

...

I agree that masks help avoiding the infection to a certain point.

I disagree with your mask-technique because they are re-usable and people either do not know hot to disinfect it, or are not interested anymore in disinfecting it after a while. (Yes, I am pointing at you volunteer firerfighters and Red Cross guys ) A re-usable mask which might be covered with virus particles is a risk. Simply because cov19 can be passed on via smear infection easily.

It is true that ppl can be teached how to behave correctly and how to minimize the risk of infection, but obviously it did not work. Since it did not went well until now, I prefer disposable masks which will be thrown away before the owner returns to wife and kids. 

Lets go back to your example for a single moment. It is not too bright to bring a, cyborg-flesh covered, T800 to the rebel base. True? Exactly. T800 must stay outside. Now, why should I bring a re-usable mask, which is possibly maybe contaminated, home?

Proof of concept

 

 

The point we are fighting over is that you say, your masks will save lives. I say your mask is a risk.

You got math on your side, that is not bad, formulas are getting proven every day across the whole world by thousands and thousands of school kids. But I got human factor on my side. I will tell you something about it.

How do you get HIV? In South Africa and India the numbers of infected are skyrocketing. What? How is that? Do ppl not know how HIV spreads? Ok, ok. There are infections caused by contaminated blood conserves, but 99 percent is caused by unprotected sexual intercourse. Human factor, chattius. It will not hit me, only two of ten ppl got HIV. I got a good chance to avoid it.

The same human factor is it that leads to constant cov19 infections here, and the same factor is it that will lead to a lowered attention toward hygienic measures. And that is why I say your masks are a risk.

 

Edited by Dax
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I do not sell the mask by the thousand. I would prefer real ones myself. I give them to people who know what they do. If people at work are to tired to use a mask the right way I would run for shelter because we work with explosives not because of the virus. Noone with symptoms or being tired will appear. He will risk his job. So all at work should be able to use the mask and know what to do with it.

My wife and our second know how to use them: as a last reserve when running out of real ones and medical help is needed. Then they are way better than nothing.

Leaves firefighters: Luckily we had no accident or fire in our responsibilty area since schools closed. Streets are quite empty. But again: the selfmade mask is way better than none.

---

If a mask is infected from the inside it is most probably that it was the wearer himself who infected it, re-usable or single use. So it is even saver if he brings it home. The masks can be washed with all the clothes at 60 degree and done. Put on the mask when leaving the car at supermarket, remove the mask when in the car again, put it in your special bag, remove your washable shoes, into the bag with them, same with long gloves. At home all in the washing machine.

The idea of masks is that people are not knowing if they are infected. The worst scenario is that they behave as normal and they will.

Forcing all to wear masks and put them in the washing machine at home, what changes: If they are not infected - nothing except a few extra work.

If infected - most of the sneeze and cough is inside the mask. The virus is most probably already spread in the house. Now they wash the mask, gloves, ... When leaving house again: They wash their hands and put on their masks. The mask may be infected now -  re-usable or not. But noone except the wearer will touch it. And it still does its main use, preventing the virus to be sneezed far away.

Of cause their are still infections because people are not used to masks, or it are simple masks or shawls, or they get lazy and touch their face, or...

But if it only works to reduce the number of infections per person by a single percent, it is 12millions to 14millions. Maybe just enough to have enough hospital beds.

---

Politicians and docs say that people are not used to exponentional spreading and bring the chessboard with the rice corns. But they forget that fighting the disease may be the same way. Small not noticable results early on and it needs months to show an effect which gets bigger and bigger... not what a government may sell to its people, saying that the disease last for maybe a year, that a cure might not be found in a year and that simply telling the people to use their brain is the best to fight it....

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Bringing something that could be infectious home is never a good idea, but washing things with at least 60 degrees seems to be adequate to deactivate cov19. Btw, how do you want to get rid of your possibly maybe contaminated t-shirt and pullover for example if you are wearing a transparent plastic face shield?  Does not matter.

Yes, soon masks for everybody will be a must have, the industry starts already to produce them in vast numbers. Those who want can wear FFP3 and Face shield and gloves. Go on then, give your creation away, including a good and extensive how-to. If it helps to avoid a single infection....good.

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Wife was in contact with her old university and asked me at the family table what we could do at work from a list of medical pieces. She was surprised that our third daughter came with a strange but probably working idea: Lego

The Lego Mindstorm control unit to build robots and such could be used to stear a breathing system. We have unused programmable microcontrollers (much smaller than LEGO) at work, 3D printers and material, ....

I asked how my daughters how they would build a breathing unit. After a small discussion for 5 minutes: ambu bag and old electrical typewriter steared by a raspberry. Self printed vent. Could perhaps even work.

Lego, that was a nice idea. With all the kids and students at home, LEGO Mindstorm is a part of tech classes at school, lot of unused resources in the kids at home it seems. Or Raspberry Pi if people have one, or ....

The breathing project at university of marburg:

https://www.uni-marburg.de/de/fb13/halbleiterphotonik/the-breathing-project/the-breathing-project-1

 

 

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The building that we live in here in MTL is almost a hundred years old... and in the hallway on the main floor is an old but very strong iron box that residents are supposed to put their " rent checks" into once a month.  It's sorely antiquated now in these modern times... 

I also couldnt help but be amused at their newly installed incentive for us to pay properly on time

I9wnX4YQ8H7_HabE50faQNba-w6GysyQQ5GyaZ_R

 

:4rofl:

 

ggo

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9 hours ago, gogoblender said:

Had to make two quick runs to the pharmacy and grocery store last night after work.. 

it's like playing Pac Man with all those x's on the ground! :lol:

 

 

:bump:

gogo

But where are the ghosts? 

"he's trapped in a maze ... in a system. All he can do is consume. He's chased by demons who probably just in his mind ... and if he try to get out of the maze by going one way .... he comes back on the other. 

People thinks it's a happy game, it's not!! It's a F****G nightmare and the worst part, is we live in it!!"

Since you want to make "program and control" references ;)

The first one to post the correct reference I am making is gaining an instant like from me :D

 

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On 3/28/2020 at 10:02 PM, gogoblender said:

Chattius... I swear you family has Macgyver blood in your genes!

:superman:

gogo

I could be, but rather the opposite.  ;)

A brother of an ancestor was KGL (King's German Legion) at Waterloo, defending a key position till out of ammunition. Their sharpshooter rifles had different ammunition to the soldiers who fought in a line. He was rewarded with a higher rank, married a scotish girl and never a letter again. Perhaps he died without childs or he had a daughter who married a MacGyver, who knows. Then MacGyver has the luck to have our genes in him ;)

Speaking about luck, I own my life to a dead horse 200 years ago...

My ancestor (the brother of above) was KGL dragoons at

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_García_Hernández

 

 

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I figger by this time just about everyone is in lock down? Or perhaps close to it?  We're not under marshall law (yet! ) here in mtll... .but when I went out side for lunch today i could feel that the street was definitely different.  While before there was a polite defference to this virus...now there's a small semblance of the beginning of fear ... people are very much keeping out of each other's way...and whereas before there were children defiantly high fiving each other on street corners, there are now none.  I have doubled my Ramen resources and have put away a good amount of canned goods.... I figger its possible to wall into the kitchen with dry goods and a drain... 

No zombies shall pass!

:wow:

gogo

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Yes, before you had a talk with friends if you met them at a shop. Now you look at each other and greet with a nod and all conversation is raising shoulders and raising hands upside up in a way to say: what should I say, stupid situation.

In the village we keep distance, but lot of talking. People are allowed to leave village for buying food, hygiene articles, medicine and fuel. But we limited this to just me early before shops open for whole village.  Walking in nature is allowed for families, groups up to 2 and with keeping distance.

 

New:

Pool testing

Company will pay for repeated pool tests for all embloyees. Much like JPEG compressing. You take a larger group of people, mix their probes and do a single test on the mixed probe. If the test is negative, the whole group is free of covid19. If the test is positive, finer testing has to be done. First pool tests currently at Frankfurt are with 5-8 people and it seems to work. There are not enough tests possible currently and this would boost testing a lot.

Another repeated pool test for family because wife is a doc who cares for old people. Currently it was just my wife with a single test. With a pool test for family our second as student in medicine could take the easy cases in village.

I hope for the first testing thursday and the results on friday.

 

 

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On 3/29/2020 at 5:38 PM, Daedalus said:

But where are the ghosts? 

"he's trapped in a maze ... in a system. All he can do is consume. He's chased by demons who probably just in his mind ... and if he try to get out of the maze by going one way .... he comes back on the other. 

People thinks it's a happy game, it's not!! It's a F****G nightmare and the worst part, is we live in it!!"

Since you want to make "program and control" references ;)

The first one to post the correct reference I am making is gaining an instant like from me :D

 

Will have to say I cant guess the game but would love to know the answer... yes... lol pls spoil the riddle for me pls!

:devil:

gogo

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I am not making a reference to a game ... though the game in question is clearly part of the reference ;) 

But you might know that already :D 

However, if you want a spoiler, I am going to give it to you by PM ;)

EDIT: Voilà !! Done, spoiler sent by PM ;)

Edited by Daedalus
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