Magic find Test

[Furian67 15]

The following information was starting to get spread out amongst other threads and I think lost to most people.

 

So after reading Cthulhu's Thread on Drop Mechanics I started thinking that there is something different between the characters I play. I have a multitude of SW, Most all have the same build, little switch here and there to test things, usually all the armor is pretty much the same. But for instance my Ghost SW find Sets and Uniques left and right, where as my other characters have to really work at it.

 

After speaking with Arperum this last weekend, we believe there is a "Lucky" dice roll upon creation of a character. And upon the creation of the server. For the "Lucky Character" the idea is to create the toon, enter server, on SP when you get to look in the first chest it should drop a few items. If at least one of the items is not a magical item ie: blue or gold, delete that character and make another one, rinse and repeat until you get a blue or gold drop, preferably gold item to drop. We believe this is your "Lucky" created toon. If playing on HC Closed net, create toon, enter server, on start island there are two hidden magical spots (flashing glow) on the island back behind and past the portal. On a path one to the right along the waters edge and the other on that same path at the top of the hill. If you have the patience keep remaking the character until you get the gold item to drop from one of these spots.

 

For server creation its basically the same thing. Start server run to the first chest or "hidden treasure" spot. Look for a drop. Most preferably a Gold Magic item.

 

Did some more testing on this. Ran a server for three hours Monday night, Did not find a drop at either "hidden treasure" spot. I ran the Boar mini boss, Orc lands, seraphim Island and the dragon Tunnels, Blood forest up to the hound and did not pick up or receive a single set piece or unique.

 

Last night I did the same thing. But when I checked the "hidden treasure" spot, I got a Gold chest piece with a gold and silver slot. I picked up no less than 8 set pieces or unique items including a Poison Star. Which I think is the first time I have ever gotten one of those in over a year of playing.

 

I also tried this with bargaining, 6 servers with no "hidden treasure" spot find, looked to buy items from traders on Start Island, Waste Lands, Hissil'Ta and Blood Forest, and didn't find anything I wanted to spend my gold on. Finally hit a good server on the seventh try. My TG was level 68 also a Dryad level 40 was in server. When I checked the "hidden treasure" spot I found a gold double socket, silver and gold, dagger at level 111. (No idea why it's level was so high) When I started shopping I found over twenty items that I did buy including one double death blow and 2 double dot amulets.

 

Coincidence or something to this?

[Ryanrocker 200]

Wow, really nice info you guys have up I think you might be on to something with the magic find. I like your idea of restarting toons till they become "lucky". I'm not sure about the bargaining though. My inquisitor has found tons of lightsabers and LL% weapons on any given day/server. Thanks for doing all the testing for us

[Scleameth 19]

Well, I had this same suspicion even with Sacred 1...

I will certainly put this to the test when I create a new character! Really no harm done - you can never be too sure, right?

[Furian67 15]

Well, I had this same suspicion even with Sacred 1...

I will certainly put this to the test when I create a new character! Really no harm done - you can never be too sure, right?

That's exactly what I'm thinking.

[Dobster 39]

I think there is something to it for the toon being lucky upon creation but had never thought about the serever being lucky. Very interesting

 

I started a thread here about 2 TG's I made and noticed a very similar thing but wasnt sure if kill speed could have something to do with it.

[Ryanrocker 200]

Holy crap! I just went behind the lighthouse to try to find the spot, and a set item dropped! Lucky server indeed, I'll report in a few minutes on the quality of drops.

 

Edit: After 3 different servers, results tend to lean in your theories favor.

 

Server 1: Found a set item behind lighthouse, found 2 sets out in the field, and 1 set from wild boar.

 

Server 2: Found 5,000 Gold behind lighthouse, found 1 set, and multiple blue items.

 

Server 3: Found nothing, and found multiple blue items.

Edited August 4, 2010 by ryanrocker1217

[FrostElfGuard 9]

Thinking back to S1... the time of day on server creation was random. Why wouldn't the drop seed also be random?

 

Great work Furian!

[Arperum 3]

I guess that bargaining was done on a niob server, where monster and area levels are minimum 111 or something like that, wich results in level 111 drops from hiding spots, or level 120 set drops for level 30 chars who get boosted by questing. So there will never be any level 100- niob setitems.

[Furian67 15]

Ahh yes, that's correct Arp. I was on a noib server checking for bargaining.

[dreeft 9]

Nice work Furian!

 

I am certain that you are correct. I am definitely going to have to test this.

 

Can someone get a screenshot of where the hidden spots are on the start isle?

[Dragon Brother 619]

I have to say I agree with you...lucky toons is probably harder to prove if there's lucky servers since it could just come down to that....I do think there are definitely lucky servers though...it may be that the random seed is different for each server like Frost said.

 

Edit: Actually, scrap what I said about lucky toons...I had two dryads...one of them found 1 legendary in ~1100 guardian runs. The other at a lower level had found 3 in ~400...seems to be lucky to me

Edited August 5, 2010 by Dragon Brother

[locolagarto 15]

Well, for a while you have been describing this to me and it great to see you lay this down in writing. And how Dromin was set on making a lucky character upon creation.

 

I too believe some characters are luckier than others.

 

So Ryan did 3 test servers that seemed to favor your idea, I will try to keep track of the servers I make and whether they are lucky or not.

[Furian67 15]

Great work guys. I really think we are onto that unknown factor that Cthulhu was talking about in his post. And yes Loco its going to be hard to know if you just created a lucky toon or if it was a lucky server. That's going to be a really tough one to put some substance to. Unless the "Lucky" toon will have a higher chance of creating a "Lucky" server. Which would make sense to me.

 

Lets try and keep track of our servers that we create ie, Lucky Server or Not so Lucky. And how many good drops we get on each.

[dreeft 9]

Great work guys. I really think we are onto that unknown factor that Cthulhu was talking about in his post. And yes Loco its going to be hard to know if you just created a lucky toon or if it was a lucky server. That's going to be a really tough one to put some substance to. Unless the "Lucky" toon will have a higher chance of creating a "Lucky" server. Which would make sense to me.

 

Lets try and keep track of our servers that we create ie, Lucky Server or Not so Lucky. And how many good drops we get on each.

On that note, I wonder if the luck is stacked. Lucky toon + lucky server = legendaries? What about multiple lucky toons in a lucky server?

 

Perhaps when starting a new toon it would be worth using a preexisting unlucky character to find an unlucky server, bring in the new toon and see if you can beat the odds. If you find good gear straight away you're almost guaranteed happiness for the life of that character. Obviously this would require two accounts.

[Dragon Brother 619]

Great work guys. I really think we are onto that unknown factor that Cthulhu was talking about in his post. And yes Loco its going to be hard to know if you just created a lucky toon or if it was a lucky server. That's going to be a really tough one to put some substance to. Unless the "Lucky" toon will have a higher chance of creating a "Lucky" server. Which would make sense to me.

 

Lets try and keep track of our servers that we create ie, Lucky Server or Not so Lucky. And how many good drops we get on each.

On that note, I wonder if the luck is stacked. Lucky toon + lucky server = legendaries? What about multiple lucky toons in a lucky server?

 

Perhaps when starting a new toon it would be worth using a preexisting unlucky character to find an unlucky server, bring in the new toon and see if you can beat the odds. If you find good gear straight away you're almost guaranteed happiness for the life of that character. Obviously this would require two accounts.

 

While this may be possible...its definitely a lot of hassle. Even an unlucky toon finds excessive amounts of sets and uniques over the levels...its not like we all havent got mules chock full of sets...

[dreeft 9]

Great work guys. I really think we are onto that unknown factor that Cthulhu was talking about in his post. And yes Loco its going to be hard to know if you just created a lucky toon or if it was a lucky server. That's going to be a really tough one to put some substance to. Unless the "Lucky" toon will have a higher chance of creating a "Lucky" server. Which would make sense to me.

 

Lets try and keep track of our servers that we create ie, Lucky Server or Not so Lucky. And how many good drops we get on each.

On that note, I wonder if the luck is stacked. Lucky toon + lucky server = legendaries? What about multiple lucky toons in a lucky server?

 

Perhaps when starting a new toon it would be worth using a preexisting unlucky character to find an unlucky server, bring in the new toon and see if you can beat the odds. If you find good gear straight away you're almost guaranteed happiness for the life of that character. Obviously this would require two accounts.

 

While this may be possible...its definitely a lot of hassle. Even an unlucky toon finds excessive amounts of sets and uniques over the levels...its not like we all havent got mules chock full of sets...

Yeh, I definitely wouldn't bother doing this on a regular basis. More for testing the theory.

[Furian67 15]

I have started using this as a basis on how I'm going to play for the day. If I don't find anything at the "hidden treasure" spot I will focus on grinding for experiance till its time to change servers. If I find a shiny goody at the "hidden treasure" spot I boss hunt for drops. Seems to work for me. Why hunt for drops when the odds are against you when there is nothing at the "hidden treasure" spot. To me its like banging my head against the door to get in but the door won't open.

[Ryanrocker 200]

Furian I'm pretty sure there is also some "middle ground" in between lucky and unlucky. Everytime I find gold on start isle, the drops are moderate. Just now I found gold, then got 1 set piece, an officer's saber, and some nice deathblow items.

[claudius 104]

If you get 1 drop how do you conclude the server is 'lucky'? Wouldn't that be like concluding that hitting a homerun was due to lucky socks if the day you wore those socks you hit a home run? If you win once at roulette does that mean you should bet all your money on the next round because you are 'lucky'?

 

I mean clearly there is a seed, but I believe it is pseudorandom. Which means that just because you find 6 good drops at hiding spot doesn't mean you will get more drops from boss. Or just because grunwald dragon drops something good doesn't mean swamp dragon will..

 

You need some statistics to back this theory up. Or at least make a prophecy of what you will find on a boss based on the secret spot. And then if your prophecy is sometimes false you can see its not totally reliable.

 

 

Another example is 6 6sided dice rolled. If you get 4 sixes does that mean your roll had a good seed? And next you get no sixes so thats a bad seed?

Edited August 5, 2010 by claudius

[Furian67 15]

If you get 1 drop how do you conclude the server is 'lucky'? Wouldn't that be like concluding that hitting a homerun was due to lucky socks if the day you wore those socks you hit a home run? If you win once at roulette does that mean you should bet all your money on the next round because you are 'lucky'?

 

I mean clearly there is a seed, but I believe it is pseudorandom. Which means that just because you find 6 good drops at hiding spot doesn't mean you will get more drops from boss. Or just because grunwald dragon drops something good doesn't mean swamp dragon will..

 

You need some statistics to back this theory up. Or at least make a prophecy of what you will find on a boss based on the secret spot. And then if your prophecy is sometimes false you can see its not totally reliable.

 

 

Another example is 6 6sided dice rolled. If you get 4 sixes does that mean your roll had a good seed? And next you get no sixes so thats a bad seed?

Mama tellin me to be nice.

[claudius 104]

Furian I didn't mean to rain on your parade but it could be coincidence... You have to have enough trials of say a standard set of boss runs after a miss or hit on the secret spot...

 

The student t function can tell you whether its 95% likely that there is something to your theory.

 

It would take an infinite amount of data to prove it 100% likely...

 

 

 

Its like this Oh I said abracadabra and then I rolled two heads in a row with flipping a coin.... No you would need more data to prove that was true than 2 coin tosses. It might take 10 tosses 9 heads and 1 tails. And then there would still be a chance that it was a coincidence. Maybe 100 tosses 80 heads 20 tails and you could show to a high confidence level that the magic word 'abracadabra' makes it heads more often.

 

 

Another thing noticed in psychology called confirmation bias has shown that the brain is wired (my words and I am not a psychologist) to notice information that confirms our beliefs and not notice information that contradicts. This is why you have to be careful when studying things such as randomness in video games.

Edited August 5, 2010 by claudius

[locolagarto 15]

Furian I didn't mean to rain on your parade but it could be coincidence... You have to have enough trials of say a standard set of boss runs after a miss or hit on the secret spot...

 

The student t function can tell you whether its 95% likely that there is something to your theory.

 

It would take an infinite amount of data to prove it 100% likely...

 

 

 

Its like this Oh I said abracadabra and then I rolled two heads in a row with flipping a coin.... No you would need more data to prove that was true than 2 coin tosses. It might take 10 tosses 9 heads and 1 tails. And then there would still be a chance that it was a coincidence. Maybe 100 tosses 80 heads 20 tails and you could show to a high confidence level that the magic word 'abracadabra' makes it heads more often.

 

 

Another thing noticed in psychology called confirmation bias has shown that the brain is wired (my words and I am not a psychologist) to notice information that confirms our beliefs and not notice information that contradicts. This is why you have to be careful when studying things such as randomness in video games.

 

Claudius, no one has stated that they believe this to be statistically proven or verified. The only thing stated here was a theory based on some experimentation with the question to all "is this just coincidence or is there something to it". Your statistics background would certainly come in handy to help prove or disprove the theory, but lets have some discovery and conversation before throwing out peoples ideas because the are mathematically difficult to prove. For that matter your argument makes pretty near 75% of what we think we know and love about Sacred2 statistically false. That is a real poo poo party for most of us to hear. So perhaps keeping a hint of fantasy in our fantasy role playing game is acceptable.

 

Cheers

[claudius 104]

loco my answer is that it could be coincidence... I hope that is ok. It could also be true of course.

 

Sorry if it was upsetting how I responded. I have said things I hadn't yet proven too such as that the 4th poison guardian has a deadly attack. I only said that because I lost some characters. I understand that you guys are not saying this is proven, but rather an interesting question.

Edited August 5, 2010 by claudius

[dreeft 9]

Perhaps we should define a set of parameters and have everyone test them?

 

1. Check the hidden spots on Start Island, note down what was found.

2. Run a selection of predefined areas in a close proximity to a portal. Boar, guardians, poison lord, blood forest, etc.

3. Note the items that drop.

4. Rinse, repeat.

 

Do this 10 times and note any correlation between the initial spots and the gear found. The more people that do it, the more data we will be able to collect. This still won't prove anything conclusively, but it will give us a much higher level of confidence as claudius said.

 

If nothing else, you should collect some loot/xp for your troubles

[Arperum 3]

Also, note down every single drop, like:

 

23 greys,

17 whites,

9 blues,

2 yellow,

1 set

no unique.